Strategic framework for recovery

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This destruction not only adds to the problems, but also accelerates the obsolescence of existing infrastructure, rendering buildings that were already in poor condition dilapidated. This means that recovery cannot be a simple return to pre-war conditions; it requires a comprehensive approach aimed at modernization and resilience.

Assessment of the housing stock of Ukraine

Current status and technical condition

The housing stock of Ukraine is in an unsatisfactory condition, which is due to many years of insufficient funding for major repairs. In recent years, no more than 15% of the required amount has been allocated for major repairs of the housing stock. This has led to a significant deterioration in the technical condition of housing: every third apartment or house requires major or current repairs.

This situation points to a deep-rooted problem of aging infrastructure that existed long before the full-scale invasion. More than 60% of buildings require major overhaul, and a fifth of the heating networks are in a state of disrepair.

A special category is made up of buildings of the Khrushchev and Stalin series. Panel Khrushchevs, originally designed for a 25-year service life, and brick ones for 50 years, later received an extension of their service life to 60 years. This means that many of them should have been demolished already in the period from 2017 to 2025, depending on the year of construction. At the same time, if the building has never been repaired, it should have been demolished ten years ago. Stalins (built before the war) have a longer estimated service life of 125-150 years, which potentially allows them to be operated until 2050-2100. Approximately 75% of Ukraine’s population lives in old housing stock built in the 1960s-1980s, with 15% living in buildings built in the 1960s. Almost every third apartment building belongs to the “Khrushchev” series.

This amount has increased by $12.6 billion since the beginning of 2024 due to ongoing missile strikes and hostilities. According to the World Bank, Ukraine has lost 10% of its housing stock as a result of the war. As of early 2025, 247,819 properties were registered in the Register of Damaged and Destroyed Property, of which 222,424 were residential buildings. The greatest destruction was recorded in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv regions. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions alone have over 44,000 damaged properties each. In Severodonetsk, 60% of the housing stock requires demolition due to critical damage caused by shelling that has made the concrete brittle.

Predicted obsolescence and emergency condition

As of the beginning of 2020, 60.7 thousand residential buildings, which is 0.6% of the total housing stock of the country, were classified as dilapidated or in disrepair. The total area of these buildings reached 5.1 million square meters, where 145.7 thousand people lived. Of these, 46.1 thousand buildings were recognized as dilapidated (with physical deterioration of more than 60%), and 17.1 thousand were considered to be in disrepair.

Panel “Khrushchevs”, whose service life was 50 years, were to be demolished between 2017 and 2025, depending on the year of construction. Brick “Khrushchevs” and “Stalin” have longer service lives, but they are also gradually aging. The physical wear and tear of residential buildings under normal operating conditions can reach 75.3% by the end of their standard service life. The chronic lack of major repairs, as evidenced by the satisfaction of only 15% of the necessary financing needs, accelerates this process of wear and tear.

The problem of obsolescence of “Khrushchevs” is a kind of “time bomb”. The fact that the standard service life of many of these buildings has already expired or will expire in the coming years means that even without military action, a significant part of the population lives in potentially dangerous conditions. The lack of timely major repairs and modernization leads to the deterioration of load-bearing structures, as happened with the collapse of a building in Drohobych in 2019. In addition, outdated utilities lead to excessive energy losses, accidents in sewage systems, and limited water supply, which reduces the quality of life and creates additional risks.

Table 1: Projected obsolescence and emergency condition of the housing stock

Type/Era of construction	Original/Extended service life	Approximate construction period	Current status (approx. % of total fund)	Projected period of mass transition to emergency/demolition (without intervention)	Estimated % of total assets requiring demolition/renovation in the next 5-15 years	Key regions with high concentrations of distressed housing
“Khrushchev” (panel)	25-50 years (extended to 60)	1957-1985	Up to 33% of apartment buildings, 75% of the population in housing 60-80 years old	2017-2025 (for early series)	High, considering end of service life and war damage	Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Odesa, Chernivtsi, Kyiv
“Khrushchev” (brick)	50 years (extended to 150)	1957-1985	Included up to 75% of housing from the 60s-80s	2030-2040 (for later series)	Moderate, but requires attention to the wear and tear of communications	Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Odesa, Chernivtsi, Kyiv
“Stalinki”	“Stalin” 125-150 years	Until the 1950s	A small fraction, but it’s getting old	2050-2100	Low, but needs spot repairs	Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa (historical centers)
Mass production (after 1980s)	100+ years	1980-2000	Part of the general fund	2050+	Low, but vulnerable to military damage	All regions, especially large cities
New construction (after 2000)	100+ years	After 2000	2-3% of the general fund	Far beyond 2100	Minimal, but vulnerable to direct military strikes	Kyiv region, Kyiv city, Lviv region

Assessment of Ukraine’s industrial stock

Current condition and wear

The industrial sector of Ukraine is characterized by an extremely high level of depreciation of production assets. Physical and moral depreciation of fixed production assets in Ukrainian industry reaches an average of 65%. According to some data, the average physical depreciation is 70%, and moral depreciation is up to 95%. These indicators significantly exceed the threshold of 50%, which is considered critical for the economic security of the state, and are strikingly different from the level of depreciation in developed countries of the European Union, where it does not exceed 25%. Such a high level of depreciation seriously undermines the competitiveness of Ukrainian industrial enterprises. In the structure of industrial fixed assets, buildings account for 37.4-38.5%, and machinery and equipment – 47.7-48.9%.

The full-scale conflict has had a devastating impact on the country’s industrial potential, which has historically been the backbone of the economy. Direct damage to industry, construction, and the service sector amounted to US$14.4 billion as of February 2025. The agro-industrial complex suffered losses of US$10.3 billion from the destruction of assets alone, and total losses exceeded US$80 billion.

The Avdiivka Coke Plant was also destroyed. The chemical industry faced losses of $5-6 billion in working capital, $600 million in profits, and $2 billion in the value of production capacity. Between 40% and 50% of chemical enterprises completely ceased operations, and at least 7 large and medium-sized enterprises suffered significant damage, including a sulfuric acid producer in Rubizhne.

Ukraine’s industry faces a dual challenge: not only to recover from the war damage, but also to undertake deep modernization. The extremely high level of depreciation of fixed assets that existed before the war means that simply restoring the destroyed facilities will not solve the problem of uncompetitiveness. The war damage, especially in the eastern and southern regions where heavy industry was concentrated, provides a unique, albeit tragic, opportunity for a technological leap. Instead of renovating outdated facilities, we can focus on building new, modern, energy-efficient production facilities that meet global standards. This will not only increase competitiveness, but also create a more sustainable and diversified industrial base that is less vulnerable to future threats.

Obsolescence and reconstruction needs

The high level of physical (65-70%) and moral (95%) wear and tear indicates that a significant part of the industrial stock is functionally obsolete and requires replacement or major repairs, regardless of military damage. Industrial buildings, as a rule, have a service life of 50 years (average) to over 100 years (extended). Given the current high wear and tear, many old facilities have long passed their optimal operational life.

Given the high level of industrial attrition and war damage, especially in traditionally concentrated heavy industrial regions, industrial parks offer a structured and supported environment for recovery and modernization.

The development of new parks, especially in “green” areas (60% of new parks), allows for the decentralization of industrial production, making it less vulnerable to mass attacks. This strategy contributes to the creation of a more diversified and sustainable industrial base, moving away from the Soviet model of heavy industry concentration. It also allows for the integration of modern, energy-efficient and potentially dual-use (civilian/military) production facilities. Attracting new businesses and creating jobs in these parks is crucial for economic recovery and long-term stability.

Таблиця 2: Прогнозоване застарівання та потреби в реконструкції промислового фонду

Industry	Current physical wear and tear of equipment (approx. %)	Current equipment depreciation (approx. %)	Amount of destruction/losses from the war (approx.)	Projected period of mass attrition/need for replacement (without intervention)	Need for reconstruction/modernization (%)	Key regions of concentration/loss
Metallurgy	71.4% (mechanical engineering and metalworking)	95% (general moral wear and tear)	40% of capacity, >60% of production volume, destroyed factories in Mariupol, Avdiivka	Already happening, the next 5-10 years for most funds	100% (needs complete modernization)	Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk
Chemical and petrochemical	71%	95% (general moral wear and tear)	$5-6 billion in working capital, $2 billion in capacity, 40-50% of enterprises suspended	Already happening, the next 5-10 years for most funds	100% (needs complete modernization)	Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Zaporizhia, Dneprodzerzhinsk, Rubizhne, Horlivka, Rivne, Cherkasy, Odesa
Agro-industrial complex	High (not specified)	High (not specified)	$10.3 billion in assets, $80.1 billion in total losses	Already happening, the next 5-10 years	100% (needs restoration and modernization)	Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kyiv
Engineering	71.4%	95% (general moral wear and tear)	Significant losses (including up to $14.4 billion for industry)	Already happening, the next 5-10 years for most funds	100% (needs complete modernization)	Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kramatorsk
Other industries (construction, light industry, etc.)	65% (average)	95% (general moral wear and tear)	Significant losses (including up to $14.4 billion for industry)	Already happening, the next 5-15 years	High	Across the country

Innovative approaches to the future of construction and urban planning

Mandatory integrated shelters in new residential buildings

New legislation in Ukraine requires developers to provide for the presence of shelters and bomb shelters in new buildings. This requirement is aimed at ensuring civil protection at the planning and construction stages, ensuring that residential complexes cannot be put into operation without appropriate protective structures.

Typical concepts of protective structures include storage facilities, anti-radiation shelters and the simplest shelters, such as basements and underground parking lots. It is recommended to design dual-purpose structures that can be used rationally in peacetime, for example, as underground parking lots, but at the same time have the protective properties of shelters or anti-radiation shelters.

“Safe-rooms” inside apartments, designed according to the “two-wall” principle, are also provided for, which can serve as temporary shelters, especially for people with disabilities, the elderly and families with children. Basements and basements can also be fortified and used as shelters.

Accelerated construction technologies

3D printing in construction

Advantages of 3D printing:

• Resource savings: Precise use of materials minimizes waste and reduces costs.
• Speed of construction: Rapid construction reduces project timelines from months to days.
• Housing affordability: Cost reductions and faster construction times make 3D printing ideal for mass-producing affordable housing, especially for low-income populations or in disaster-affected areas.
• Design flexibility: The technology allows for complex architectural forms, curved walls, and unique facades.
• Sustainability: Minimizing CO2 emissions and the ability to use recycled materials make the process more sustainable.
• Reduced human resources: 3D printers require minimal personnel, reducing labor costs and the risk of injury.

Despite the high initial cost of construction 3D printers, their potential to transform the construction industry in the coming decades is enormous.

Modular and prefabricated houses

The main advantages of modular houses:

• Speed of production and construction: The implementation time of modular projects is half that of traditional technologies. A house can be manufactured in about a month and assembled in a couple of weeks.
• Cost-effectiveness: The compactness, light weight, mobility and minimalism of modular structures ensure their lower cost compared to other types of buildings, while they do not require large-scale finishing.
• Mobility: Ready-made structures are easily transported and moved, which allows you to quickly deploy entire villages in any area and, if necessary, move them.
• Environmental friendliness: Natural and harmless materials are used for construction.
• Reliability: Wooden structures are resistant to negative influences and are treated against fires and pests.
• Individual approach: Individual equipment, layout and dimensions, as well as integration of built-in furniture are possible.
• Shelter Integration: In private modular homes, dual-purpose shelters can be provided that serve both as a cellar and a shelter, partially or fully buried in the ground. The possibility of building mobile protective structures (containers or blocks) and dual-purpose structures, such as underground parking lots that function as shelters, is also being considered.

Production capacities allow for the implementation of large volumes of such structures, complementing them with infrastructure and landscaping, which makes them ideal for complex restoration projects.

Principles of Sustainable Urban Design in Wartime

After the full-scale Russian invasion, approaches to housing and urban design in Ukraine have changed dramatically, putting people’s safety first. New civil protection standards have been updated and become more stringent and realistic, taking into account modern threats.

One of the key principles is the emphasis on low-rise and medium-rise buildings. Experts note that the lower height of buildings helps to avoid massive residential blocks such as Poznyaki or Troyeshchyna, making them less vulnerable to destruction. Medium-rise buildings also allow for good density of square meters per hectare, especially in complex development of large areas, while providing a smaller carbon footprint compared to high-rise buildings.

Advantages of low-rise construction:

• Speed of recovery: Mid-rise and low-rise buildings provide a time advantage, which is especially important in the post-war period.
• Comfort and safety: Living on the lower floors provides easy access to the street and the possibility of rapid evacuation, which is critically important in wartime. Fewer neighbors contribute to the formation of closer social ties and intimate spaces.
• Sustainability: Low-rise buildings are more earthquake-resistant, have a more stable microclimate, and require lower maintenance costs.
• Ground floor functionality: Ground floor apartments have their own descents to basements, which can serve as shelters, providing additional safety and convenience.

Ukrainian architects are actively studying international experience, in particular, the practices of Israel, which has extensive experience in designing buildings taking into account constant threats, as well as projects from regions with high seismic activity to increase structural strength.

New safety standards:

• Strengthening protective structures: Increasing the thickness of enclosing structures and floors to withstand shock loads.
• Quick access systems: Designing convenient evacuation routes, a sufficient number of exits and installing signs (with Braille on handrails and doors) that help people quickly navigate.
• Home autonomy: Equipping modern homes with systems that ensure independent functioning during a power outage (e.g., gas boiler rooms, generators).
• Inclusive solutions: Training architects and implementing solutions that ensure accessibility and safety for all categories of the population.

Integration of military infrastructure elements for civil protection

The concept of a safe city in the face of a potential military threat involves not only passive protection, but also active measures to reduce risks. Although the direct integration of EW systems into civilian infrastructure for urban protection is not a widely discussed civilian practice, the military use of EW to protect critical infrastructure from drones has already proven its effectiveness. EW systems such as Bukovel-AD and Nota are used to suppress GPS signals and control drones, which allows protecting power plants and military depots from attacks.

Strategic population distribution and infrastructure reinforcement are also important considerations. Studies show that residents of large settlements are more likely to feel insecure (44% in cities with a population of 100,000 or more, compared to 24% in villages). This is due to the higher density of buildings and the concentration of potential targets. Principles of safe urban planning in wartime should take this into account. Excessively dense and high-rise buildings, which increase the scale of destruction and make evacuation difficult in the event of an attack, should be avoided. Instead, the development of low- and medium-rise areas should be encouraged, which offer faster access to shelters and the street, as well as less vulnerability to mass destruction.

Reinforcement of critical infrastructure, such as water, power and transport hubs, is mandatory and is carried out in both peacetime and wartime. This includes not only physical protection, but also decentralization of key systems so that damage to them in one place does not lead to the collapse of the entire network.

Recommendations and long-term vision

A comprehensive analysis of the state of Ukraine’s housing and industrial stock, strengthened by military actions, indicates the need for a systemic and strategic approach to restoration and development.

1. Priority renovation of outdated housing stock:
   • It is necessary to accelerate the adoption and implementation of the draft law on the comprehensive reconstruction of old housing stock quarters, lowering the threshold for residents’ consent to 75%.
   • Use the experience and mechanisms of the “eReconstruction” program to scale up compensation and resettlement processes during the renovation of “Khrushchev” and other outdated buildings. This will allow for effective management of the logistics of resettlement and ensure fair compensation, minimizing social resistance.
   • Develop long-term renovation financing programs that involve not only state and local budgets, but also private investors through public-private partnership mechanisms, taking into account the high economic value of land under outdated buildings in central areas of cities.
2. Modernization and decentralization of industrial potential:
   • The restoration of industry should not be just a repair, but a deep modernization aimed at replacing outdated assets and introducing modern, energy-efficient technologies. This will increase the competitiveness of Ukrainian products in world markets.
   • Actively develop a network of industrial parks, especially in “green” areas in safer regions. This contributes to the decentralization of industrial capacities, reducing their vulnerability to concentrated attacks, and stimulates economic diversification.
   • Provide targeted state support and tax benefits for enterprises that invest in modernization and the creation of new production facilities within industrial parks, especially those that are focused on exports and the production of goods with high added value.
3. Safe and sustainable urban planning:
   • Introduce the principles of low-rise and medium-rise buildings as a priority for new construction and reconstruction. This will reduce the vulnerability of cities to military strikes, improve the psychological comfort of residents and ensure faster evacuation.
   • Make it mandatory to integrate reliable, dual-purpose shelters (basements, underground parking lots, “safe rooms”) into all new residential and public buildings, strictly adhering to the updated DBN.
   • Develop and implement “safe city” concepts that include strategic population distribution, strengthening of critical infrastructure and, where necessary, integration of active protection elements, such as electronic warfare systems, to protect against air threats in key urban areas.
   • Optimize the use of territories after the demolition of outdated housing, providing for a comprehensive redevelopment of neighborhoods taking into account new standards of safety, ecology and social infrastructure.
4. Development of innovative construction technologies:
   • Actively support and encourage the introduction of 3D printing in construction for rapid and cost-effective housing construction, especially for mass construction and temporary accommodation.
   • Develop the production and application of modular and prefabricated construction houses, taking into account their mobility, speed of deployment and the possibility of integrating protective elements.
5. Strengthening the role of local authorities:
   • Continue to deepen the decentralization reform, giving local communities even more powers and resources to manage recovery processes, urban planning control and security.
   • Provide training and advanced training for local authorities in safe urban planning and emergency management.

Ukraine’s long-term vision should be to create a resilient, secure, and modern country, where infrastructure is not only rebuilt but also modernized, taking into account the lessons of war. This will not only ensure decent living conditions for citizens, but also lay the foundation for future economic growth and national security.