Agriculture accounts for 10.4% of the country’s GDP and provides 40-41% of its total exports. This economic dependence underscores the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for both national prosperity and international stability. In addition to its agricultural potential, Ukraine has abundant water resources, including an extensive river network with major arteries such as the Dnieper, Dniester, Southern Bug, and Desna, as well as over 1,100 artificial reservoirs, numerous ponds, and a complex system of canals.

INFOGRAPHIC

The country is currently facing a complex and growing crisis caused by the accelerated impact of climate change, which poses long-term, systemic threats to water availability, quality, and agricultural productivity. At the same time, ongoing military operations are causing immediate, devastating, and often irreversible damage to critical infrastructure and natural ecosystems.

The average annual potential river flow in Ukraine is estimated at 209.8 cubic kilometers, with local flow amounting to 52.4 cubic kilometers. This is supported by an extensive network of water bodies, including 1,103 reservoirs, about 50,000 ponds, and large canal systems designed to manage water distribution.

Paradoxically, Ukraine is classified as a water-scarce country, ranking 17th out of 20 European countries in terms of water availability per capita.

Water resources are unevenly distributed, and regional disparities are exacerbated by Ukraine’s heavy dependence on external water sources: approximately 76.6% of water supply comes from transit river flows from neighboring countries, and only 23.4% is generated domestically.

Historically, large-scale anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of numerous dams, reservoirs, and large drainage canals, have significantly altered natural hydrological cycles. Over the past 150-200 years, more than 500 watercourses have disappeared from the country’s maps, and the total length of the river network has been reduced by 3,187 km, transforming many small rivers into cascade systems with disrupted natural flow.

Access to safe drinking water remains a critical issue. As of 2022, 88% of the population had access to safely managed drinking water services. However, significant disparities remain: 31% of the population did not have access to a continuous water supply in 2021. Approximately 10 million people do not have access to safely managed water supply services, and more than 20 million do not have access to centralized wastewater collection and treatment. Rural areas are particularly underserved: only 30.1% of the rural population has access to centralized water supply, compared to 99.2% in urban areas.

Ukraine’s water bodies are under enormous anthropogenic pressure from various sources of pollution. Industrial activity contributes to the release of toxic waste, heavy metals (such as lead, cadmium, mercury, chromium, arsenic, zinc, and strontium), and petroleum products, which are often discharged by industrial enterprises as a result of accidental spills or intentional discharge.

Agricultural practices, including unregulated fertilizer use, improper manure storage, and pesticide use, lead to diffuse pollution, which can account for up to 70% of total water pollution and contaminates both surface and groundwater.

Inadequate or non-existent wastewater treatment, especially in small towns and rural areas, leads to significant discharges of polluted wastewater directly into natural water bodies. In 2020, 10% of total wastewater was classified as polluted or insufficiently treated.

The ongoing war directly contributes to chemical and physical pollution through the release of toxic substances from explosives and ammunition (e.g., nitrocellulose, trinitrotoluene), heavy metals from military equipment, and acid rain.

The destruction of infrastructure, such as water supply and sewage systems, further exacerbates this problem, leading to the release of pollutants into the environment.

As a result of these pressures, 80% of natural water sources are considered polluted due to anthropogenic impact. Satellite analysis shows that over 60% of Dnipro reservoirs have dangerous levels of chlorophyll-a and phycocyanin, exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) standards. In addition, 25% of drinking water samples do not meet EU quality standards.

Numerous studies consistently point to a multifaceted water quality crisis caused by a combination of systemic problems (aging and inadequate infrastructure, insufficient wastewater treatment, and lack of control over diffuse pollution). High rates of untreated wastewater, widespread agricultural runoff, and industrial pollution mean that even physically accessible water is often unsafe to consume. The war brings a new, serious layer of toxic pollution that is predicted to have consequences for decades to come.

The main consumers of fresh water in 2019 were the agricultural sector (4.4 cubic kilometers), followed by industry (4.3 cubic kilometers), including thermal and nuclear power plants, metallurgical and coal enterprises, and utilities (2.4 cubic kilometers).

Significant water losses occur during transportation, estimated at 1.2 cubic kilometers (12% of the total volume of water withdrawn) in 2020 and between 1.4 and 2.2 billion cubic meters annually. The average water loss rate in urban water supply networks across the country is approximately 36%.

Approximately 40% of Ukraine’s water supply networks and 35% of treatment facilities are assessed as being in critical condition, requiring urgent rehabilitation or modernization. Most urban treatment facilities are outdated and inefficient, with 95% of the sludge produced being stored without further processing, which contributes to environmental problems.

A devastating event was the explosion of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant in June 2023, which led to a large-scale environmental disaster. This event caused catastrophic flooding downstream, drainage of the reservoir, and the loss of 10% of Ukraine’s water resources. The immediate consequence was the loss of access to quality drinking water for 6 million people and limited access for over 13 million.

Table 1: Key indicators and issues related to water resources (current status)

The rate of warming in Ukraine significantly exceeds global and European averages. This is not just an increase in average temperatures, but a fundamental change in agroclimatic conditions. The climate of Kyiv, for example, now resembles that of Odesa in the mid-20th century. This “northward shift” means that regions traditionally optimal for certain crops are becoming less suitable, while previously cooler areas may become more favorable for heat-loving crops.

The rapid decline in soil moisture in summer, even with increased winter and early spring precipitation, indicates gradual desertification, especially in western Ukraine. This requires a fundamental reassessment of traditional crop-growing areas in agricultural planning and consideration of adaptive strategies, such as changing crop types or increasing irrigation in newly affected areas.

Table 2: Projected climate change in Ukraine (2030, 2035, 2040)

The rate of warming in Ukraine significantly exceeds the global and European averages. This is not just an increase in average temperatures, but a fundamental change in agroclimatic conditions. The climate of Kyiv, for example, now resembles that of Odesa in the mid-20th century. This “northward shift” means that regions traditionally optimal for certain crops are becoming less suitable, while previously cooler areas may become more favorable for heat-loving crops.

The rapid decline in soil moisture in summer, even with increased winter and early spring precipitation, indicates gradual desertification, especially in western Ukraine. This requires a fundamental reassessment of traditional crop-growing areas in agricultural planning and consideration of adaptive strategies, such as changing crop types or increasing irrigation in newly affected areas.

Ukraine’s agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change, experiencing a wide range of impacts—from changing growing conditions to significant reductions in crop yields—with these problems exacerbated by regional differences and a critical need for effective irrigation.

Warming trends:

Winter wheat: Overall, warming trends are considered favorable for wheat cultivation in Ukraine, with a potential increase in yields of 20-40% in northern and northwestern Ukraine by 2050. However, temperatures above 29°C can negatively affect yields. The southern steppe zone is projected to experience a significant decline in yields under higher emission scenarios. In 2022, crop losses exceeding 20% were observed in many regions, including Zaporizhia, Kyiv, Odesa, and Ternopil. In the 2023/24 marketing year, a record yield of 4.50 t/ha was recorded, which is 17% more than in the previous year, with a total production volume of 22.5 million tons. However, the area under cultivation in the forest-steppe zone decreased by 14%. Forecasts for 2024/25 range from 19.2 to 22.3 million tons, with yields slightly below the five-year average. For 2025/26, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasts 21.2-23 million tons, while the USDA forecasts 22 million tons, which is 13% below the five-year average.

Corn: Corn yields are expected to decline. Yields are expected to decline by 3-5% over the decade in the forest-steppe and by 7-10% in the southern steppe. From 1981 to 2010, the decline in yields in the southern steppe reached 35-40%. In 2022, production fell to 50%. For 2023/24, production was estimated at 29.5-30.5 million tons. Forecasts for 2024/25 are 26-26.8 million tons. For 2025/26, forecasts range from 29.2 to 30.5 million tons, with the USDA forecasting 30.5 million tons, which is 4% below the five-year average. Global studies show that corn yields could decline by 24% by 2030 due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. By mid-century, yields could decline by 20-55%.

Sunflower: Sunflower yields are expected to decline, with the southern steppe region at greatest risk of crop shortfalls. Forecasts for 2024/25 range from 12.5 to 14.7 million tons. For 2025/26, forecasts are 14-20 million tons, while the USDA forecasts 14 million tons, which is 3% below the five-year average. Droughts in southern regions could result in up to a 6% loss in yield, potentially reducing the total gross harvest to 15 million tons or less. By mid-century, yields could decline by 20-55%.

Soybeans: Soybeans are less sensitive to temperature changes than corn, but are sensitive to changes in precipitation during the reproductive phase. The crop demonstrates adaptability to changing climatic conditions. There is a trend toward expanding soybean acreage as farmers increasingly switch to soybeans because of their lower water requirements and ability to grow well on fragmented plots. Production for 2024/25 is estimated at 7 million tons, 35% more than the previous year. For 2025/26, forecasts range from 5.7 to 7.6 million tons, with the USDA forecasting 7.6 million tons, a significant increase of 65% compared to the five-year average. By mid-century, yields could decline by 20-55%.

Rapeseed: Rapeseed yields showed an increase in most of the surveyed areas. There has been an expansion of acreage, especially in the southern regions. Production for 2024/25 is estimated at 3.7-3.8 million tons. For 2025/26, forecasts range from 3 to 3.7 million tons, with the USDA forecasting 3.7 million tons, which is 4% above the five-year average.

Barley: In the forest-steppe region, barley yields have declined by 2-3% over the decade. Production for 2024/25 is estimated at 5.3-5.8 million tons. For 2025/26, forecasts range from 4.5 to 5.5 million tons, with the USDA forecasting 5.5 million tons, which is 24% less than the five-year average.

The regions most vulnerable to green water shortage (GWS), defined as insufficient rainfall for optimal crop growth, include:

–Under current climate conditions: Approximately 10% (3.1 million hectares) of Ukraine’s rain-fed arable land, especially in Crimea, Odessa, and Kherson regions, is vulnerable.

–With global warming of 1.5°C: GWS is projected to affect 41% (13.5 million hectares) of Ukraine’s total arable land, with the largest new affected areas located in Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions.

–With global warming of 3°C: 77% (25.5 million hectares) of Ukraine’s total arable land will be affected by GWS, with a significant increase in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv regions.

The agricultural sector of Ukraine is affected by climate change, including a wide range of impacts – changing minds, increasing to a significant reduction in productivity, and these problems become more regional duties and the critical need for effective solutions.

Climate change does not affect Ukraine’s agricultural landscape evenly, leading to regional differences in suitability for agriculture. While the southern and eastern regions are facing increasing aridity and a projected decline in the yield of traditional crops, the warming trend is simultaneously making the northern and forest-steppe zones more suitable for heat-loving crops such as corn, sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed. This indicates a significant geographical shift in the optimal zones for agricultural production within Ukraine.

Droughts are expected to intensify. Projections show that 50-year extreme droughts in terms of soil moisture and runoff could become the norm by 2055, implying a significant increase in their frequency and severity over the next decade. Southern and central regions, especially the southern steppe, are expected to become drier.

River flow in the Dniester and Southern Bug basins could decrease by a third by the end of the century, and in the Dnieper basin by 20%. In the southern and southeastern regions, river flow could decrease by 30-50%.

The water level in the Dnieper River at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (before its destruction) has already decreased by 20% of the average annual flow. By the middle of the century, three-quarters of arable land is expected to experience water shortages, with Ukraine expected to face a “green water” deficit affecting 25.5 million hectares of arable land.

The interconnection between water resource projections and agriculture is a critical aspect of Ukraine’s future sustainability. Projections of declining river flow and expanding “green water” deficits directly lead to increased irrigation needs for agriculture. The destruction of existing irrigation infrastructure due to military action further complicates the ability to meet these future needs. This creates a vicious cycle in which climate change increases demand for water, while war simultaneously reduces water supply and damages critical infrastructure.

Conclusions

Ukraine faces an unprecedented combination of challenges to its water resources and agricultural sector, caused by the accelerated impact of climate change and the devastating consequences of the ongoing military conflict. The country’s vital role as a global food supplier is threatened by reduced water availability, deteriorating water quality, and the increasing vulnerability of agriculture to extreme weather events. The destruction of critical infrastructure as a result of military action not only exacerbates these climate-induced stresses, but also creates complex, long-term consequences of pollution and humanitarian crises.

Ukraine’s water sector was already under significant pressure due to inherent shortages in certain regions, outdated infrastructure, and widespread pollution. The war has exacerbated these pre-existing vulnerabilities, leading to a catastrophic decline in water security. In addition, diffuse agricultural pollution and massive heavy metal contamination from destroyed infrastructure, such as the Kakhovka Reservoir, pose hidden, long-term threats that are difficult to mitigate.

Climate change is leading to accelerated desertification and a northward shift of agroclimatic zones across Ukraine. This means that traditional agricultural regions are becoming less suitable for certain crops, while new opportunities may arise in previously cooler areas.

The sensitivity of the agricultural sector to these climate shifts is evident in the projected decline in yields of major crops such as corn and sunflower in southern regions, while winter wheat and oilseeds, such as soybeans and rapeseed, may have opportunities in other areas, especially if they adapt.

To overcome these complex challenges and build a sustainable future, the following recommendations are essential:

Planning:
  • Integrated planning of the water-agricultural complex: It is essential to adopt comprehensive planning that recognizes the deep interdependencies between water resources and agricultural productivity. Policies and investments must be coordinated to manage water supply and demand in conjunction with agricultural land use and crop selection, especially in the context of cumulative pressures from climate change and post-conflict conditions.
  • Climate-resilient recovery: Post-war recovery efforts should focus on quality restoration rather than simply repairing damaged infrastructure. This includes integrating climate-optimized infrastructure, such as water-efficient irrigation systems (e.g., drip irrigation, IoT-based management systems), upgraded water treatment facilities, and resilient water supply networks, from the outset. Funds should be strategically directed toward ensuring the future viability of Ukraine’s vital sectors, embedding climate resilience as a core principle of recovery and long-term development.
  • Strengthening governance and data infrastructure: A robust institutional framework with clearly defined responsibilities for water management and environmental protection is essential. This includes accelerating the implementation of integrated water resources management (IWRM) based on the basin principle and developing comprehensive river basin management plans. Improved monitoring systems capable of providing high-quality real-time data on water quantity and quality, as well as soil moisture, are fundamental to informed decision-making and adaptive management.
  • Strategic crop diversification and regional adaptation: Agricultural policy should support a strategic reorientation of crop production in line with shifting agroclimatic zones. This includes promoting the cultivation of heat-loving and drought-resistant crops in new suitable areas, as well as investing in advanced irrigation and climate-optimized methods to mitigate losses in traditionally productive but increasingly vulnerable southern regions.
  • International partnership and sustainable investment: Given the scale of the challenges and the economic consequences of the conflict, sustained international financial and technical support is crucial. This includes attracting private sector investment, utilizing funds from international financial organizations, and developing public-private partnerships. Such cooperation is vital for Ukraine to implement the large-scale, long-term adaptation and resilience initiatives necessary for its national security and global food stability.

By adopting these integrated strategies, Ukraine will be able to work to mitigate the profound effects of climate change, protect its water resources, ensure food security, and build a more sustainable and stable future.

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